Mass Immigration, the
Growth Imperative and the Creative Metropolis
In Switzerland, votes can quickly turn into a political thriller accessible
to the public. Here, the people as the ultimate sovereign has the right (which
is rather exceptional compared to other countries) to say “stop, not like
this!” in a vote, notwithstanding the recommendations of its government, of
wealthy interest groups or expert warnings. This was the case with the recent initiative
against mass immigration launched by the SVP that has won with a narrow
majority of votes.
The reactions to this result produced quite predictable waves of
indignation, hyperbole and panic (while the winners’ joy was a bit muffled):
Switzerland at the economic abyss, an isolated island of happy xenophobes, a
nation of spoiled farmers who tore open the “Röstigraben” and slapped the EU.
Is this outcry justified?
At the very least it is open to discussion. The Swiss economy has been buzzing
for decades also without the free movement of persons. Furthermore one cannot
simply label a country as xenophobic with four out of ten people having a migration
background while at the same time enjoying considerable social peace. A spoiled
nation of farmers probably also wouldn’t repeatedly and decidedly vote “no” to
more holidays, much to the incomprehension of its European neighbors. We also
cannot speak of a real “Röstigraben” when four out of ten Romands (French
speaking Swiss) still voted for the initiative while several districts (all
urban cantons) of the German speaking part of Switzerland rejected it. Finally
the slap in the face of the EU should rather be interpreted as a slap in the
face of the European political establishment than of the European citizens, who
probably would have voted similarly in most cases, would they have a comparable
right of the Swiss initiative.
The reasons why so many Swiss supported the initiative are manifold.
Besides the fear of foreign infiltration and the congestion of infrastructure,
it is mainly a growing general unease with the current economic and consumer
ideology, which is based on the idea that “more” automatically means “better”.
A higher GDP – even if it’s per capita – doesn’t automatically translate into a
higher standard of living. But even if one were to accept this claim as a
truism, as many representatives of the economy propagated implicitly or
explicitly, a comparison with Germany provides some interesting insights. Even
though Germany has a shrinking population, its GDP has increased by 10% over
the past 10 years, compared with 19.2% in Switzerland. However GDP per capita has
increased by 10.55% in Germany whereas in Switzerland it has increased only by
7.29% (1). So 80,000 new immigrants per year aren’t necessarily needed to
increase economic productivity.
However, recent research
findings point to the fact that at least in industrialized metropolitan areas
with good transportation systems there is a considerable and statistically
relevant correlation between the population and its economic productivity and
innovation. When the population of a city doubles, its economic productivity
increases by 130%, which means that productivity per capita increases
significantly. Bigger cities, better connections and more flexibility, a better
use of talent as well as more innovation – this could sum up the recipe for
success for such cities. But there are a few down-sides to such population
growth, among which is that the larger a city, the higher the crime rate. In
this context it is interesting that Zurich is explicitly mentioned in a study
as an example where population growth hasn’t been accompanied by an increase in
the crime rate. The authors of the study attribute this to the huge investments
in public transport, particularly relevant in as much as Zurich is a
metropolitan region composed of numerous smaller towns whose inhabitants can
easily travel to the city center in a very short time (2). The investments in
public transport – even when they are subsidized by the state – not only
contribute to keeping the standard of living on a high level, but are also
worth it economically. It actually makes sense, because the bigger the
available talent pool, the better the fit for a job opening. This is especially
relevant for recruiting talent today, when both partners in a relationship work
professionally. While one of them might find a new job in St. Gallen, the other
might still want to keep his job in Zurich. This is quite doable thanks to a
good, affordable public transport system without one of them having to give up
his or her job or taking a lesser position at the new location.
While in purely
economic terms the public transport subsidies might well be worth it, the
ecological balance might however not be quite as shiny. Further urbanization of
little Switzerland is certainly a big issue that might be directly addressed by
the EcoPop-initiative that is scheduled for vote in few years. In this context
there have been many discussions about how many persons actually fit in
Switzerland – with the specter being a 10 million country as a horror scenario.
But if you consider that ten New York Cities would actually fit in the Swiss
midlands, you realize that there’s still enough space in our country for more
people, roads and houses. Like the New Yorkers, the Swiss mostly cannot imagine
to emigrate, so we shouldn’t automatically speak of an unhappy nation of 10
million inhabitants. Rather, we must take into consideration that our quality
of life might suffer if the population keeps growing in the same uncoordinated
and non-compact way. NYC is known to be a dynamic and livable city because it
has grown vertically as opposed to an urban sprawl like, for example, Los
Angeles has. So why not build a mini Manhattan in Zurich North or West?
Couldn’t this lead to an urban dynamic that would also entail an improvement in
the quality of live?
Therefore the
consequences of and factors involved in the initiative against mass immigration
are complex and there probably will be neither inevitable disasters nor simple
solutions for it.
Manuel Heer Dawson
(1) http://www.schweizamsonntag.ch/ressort/meinung/die_verklaerte_zuwanderung_die_bip-pro-kopf-luege/
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